For several years now, trade tensions among the world’s major powers, especially between the United States and China, have been stoking growing uncertainty over global trade. The World Trade Organization (WTO), guardian of multilateral trade, is now sounding the alarm. What lies behind this concern ? Rising tariffs, protectionist policies, and the prospect of a commercial “decoupling” between the two largest economies. Such a shift could upend supply chains, disrupt logistics flows, and weaken the most vulnerable economies.

According to the WTO’s latest projections, global merchandise trade could decline by 1.5% in volume by 2025 should current geopolitical tensions persist. Even more concerning, trade volumes between the United States and China, two of the world’s largest economies, could plummet by up to 81%. This dramatic downturn highlights the growing risk of a deeply fragmented global trade landscape.

This decline is far from insignificant. It directly impacts global economic growth, hampers investment, and disproportionately affects export-driven developing countries. North America is expected to be among the hardest hit, with exports projected to fall by 12.6% in 2025.

The World Bank echoes these concerns. Its President, Ajay Banga, has warned of the impact such uncertainty poses to the global business climate. According to Banga, the instability surrounding U.S. trade policy is dampening growth, particularly in emerging markets still reeling from the effects of the pandemic. The decline in global demand for raw materials is likely to further intensify economic pressures in these regions, once again underscoring the vulnerability of export-oriented economies.

Beyond the numbers, it is a broader global dynamic that is beginning to falter. The imposition of reciprocal tariffs, the partial suspension of key trade agreements, and growing regulatory uncertainty are all disrupting corporate trade strategies.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the WTO, warns of a looming fragmentation of the global economy “along geopolitical lines,” potentially giving rise to two isolated trade blocs. In the long run, such a decoupling could shave nearly 7% off global GDP by 2040.

In light of these developments, customs authorities find themselves at the center of the action. They must support economic operators in navigating this shifting landscape, secure trade flows while safeguarding competitiveness, and anticipate potential disruptions.

For businesses, this calls for a strengthened focus on regulatory monitoring, greater diversification of supply chains, and the adoption of agile digital tools that can adapt swiftly to volatile tariff policies.