EU–Mercosur agreement: A gradual opening that redraws global value chains

The trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur, negotiated for more than twenty years, represents one of the most ambitious economic projects for European industries. Its goal: to create an expanded transatlantic market, reduce customs duties, and facilitate the exchange of goods, services, and investments. Despite political uncertainties and heightened demands from several Member States, the agreement is already influencing industrial and commercial strategies.
 

The agreement envisions a gradual and sector-specific tariff phase-out spread over several years. Machinery, industrial equipment, spare parts, and technical products—currently facing tariffs of 10 to 20%—would see duties progressively lowered or eliminated, following timelines ranging from immediate implementation to ten years. Vehicles and rolling stock, subject to tariffs of up to 35%, would follow a slower path, constrained by strict rules of origin.

For European companies, the challenge will not be limited to tariffs: mastering rules of origin will be decisive for accessing preferential customs rates. Without solid documentation—local value added, sufficient processing, or tariff classification change—the announced benefits could remain theoretical.

In sensitive sectors, especially agri-food, market opening will be limited and governed by quotas, transition periods, and safeguard clauses allowing the EU to respond in case of market disruption. Services, meanwhile, will gain partial but meaningful access: engineering, maintenance, environmental services, digital activities, and consulting could secure new contracts thanks to the gradual opening of Mercosur’s public procurement markets.

Finally, the agreement includes a sustainability pillar that is central for France: compliance with the Paris Agreement, anti-deforestation measures, respect for sanitary standards and animal welfare, and safeguards against social and environmental dumping. Imports could be suspended if volumes surge or prices drop in a destabilizing manner. Market opening will therefore not be unconditional, but tightly linked to reciprocal commitments.

 

Although ratification is not expected before 2025–2026 and full implementation could stretch to 2036, the EU–Mercosur agreement is already producing early effects. South American manufacturers are preparing, European distributors are seeking local partners, and some SMEs are securing their positions ahead of market liberalization.